Using eBay Data to Predict Future MVPs of Football Memorabilia

Arian Foster (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images), Dexter McCluster (Photo by Tom Cammett/Diamond Images/Getty Images), Clay Matthews (Photo by John Biever /Sports Illustrated/Getty Images)

As we gear up for week six of the NFL football season, ponder this: There are 1,696 players in the NFL. However, I'm willing to bet that we're only talking about a handful of them 20 years from now. More to the point, only the sports memorabilia of a select few will acquire tremendous worth over that same span of time. And those would be… ah, if only it were that simple. I could make both you and me a mint.

Truth is, I'm not an expert on sports collectibles. I'm an expert on football. Or rather, I'm a football junkie. So much so that my hair is composed of equal parts protein cells and AstroTurf. Call me foolhardy, but I felt that I had enough pigskin know-how and intuitive sense (just don't call me the Swami) to tackle this question: In terms of football memorabilia and collectibles on eBay and elsewhere, which current football players will be valuable in the future?

Four factors weighed most heavily when determining my list of current players whose football memorabilia will translate into a great collection down the road: 1. Future star potential to current recognition and fame (in other words, you want to invest in a future Hall-of-Famer who has garnered little hype—and few items on eBay to date—so far because the scarcity of sports memorabilia years from now will then put you in the driver's seat).  2. Likelihood for magic career moments (according to Brandon Steiner of Steiner Collectibles, a major vendor of sports memorabilia, an item that captures a golden "era" or "game" is a solid buy.) 3. Anticipated level of career accomplishments (is he the next Joe Montana or the next Joe Pisarcik?) 4. The quality of the market in which the football player performs (yep, New York trumps Jacksonville.)

Darrelle Revis (Photo by Scott Boehm/Getty Images), Sam Bradford (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images), Drew Brees (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Now, we can't know for certain what an up-and-comer's impact and legacy will be over the span of his playing career, or even how long that career will last.  What we can do is see how the player's memorabilia faired on eBay over the past year, which will let us know if hype has begun to exceed promise, or vice versa.

So after identifying 10 football players who I believe will be the next generation of shining stars, I then looked at three critical eBay stats for each player, and compared a recent week (the week of September 20th, 2010) to a week approximately one year ago (October 5th, 2009). The stats are as follows: 1) the total number of eBay listings with the player's name (items ranged from football jerseys to cards to posters to tickets) 2) the total sales volume of football merchandise with the player's name 3) the average price of an item with the player's name. The results, ranked in descending order of the magnitude of the change in sales, were telling. 

C.J. Spiller, Running Back, Buffalo Bills

eBay Stats—Listings: 7→ 654; Sales: +614x; Price: $9.99→ $19.88

The future is bright for the Bills' exciting rookie runner and collectors know it—sales of his sports memorabilia on eBay have increased 614-fold in roughly a year's time. But is hype outpacing reality? After all, he's played a total of five pro football games. But I think it's a safe to say that this instant playmaker will achieve big things. The problem is that he'll be doing it for a small-market team that is currently near the cellar of the NFL.

Darrelle Revis, Cornerback, New York Jets

eBay Stats—Listings: 100→ 389; Sales: +427x; Average Price: $18.50→ $25.97

The cat's already out of the bag about how well Darrelle Revis plays the cornerback position, but that doesn't mean you should discount investing in his pieces. My gut tells me that Revis will be at the center of some big games over his career—perhaps even a Super Bowl—giving his items the luster of historical importance, as well as increased value. Another reason for optimism: Revis plays in New York, the top market for sports memorabilia. Finally, his pieces on eBay, which have already risen in terms of listings, sales and average price, will become more coveted if he fulfills the promise of a Hall-of-Fame football career.

Dez Bryant, Wide Receiver, Dallas Cowboys

eBay Stats—Listings: 16→ 1363; Sales: +375x; Average Price: $24.75→ $21.85

Dez Bryant is less than half-way through his first season and he already has 1,363 listings on eBay for the week of Sept. 20th—that's a far cry from the 16 he had last October. Earlier this season, the sure-handed receiver treated teammates to a $55,000 dinner as payback for refusing to carry a veteran's shoulder pads.  As long as his items don't flood the market, this future superstar of the #1 most-popular team in the NFL should treat current collectors of his football memorabilia almost as well. 

Arian Foster, Running Back, Houston Texans

eBay Stats—Listings: 42→500; Sales: +74x; Average Price: $4.52→$20.76

A consequence of this undrafted rookie’s warp-speed ascent to the top rung of pro rushers has been an equally sharp rise in the value of his pieces on eBay, with the average price increasing almost five-fold in just under a year. I predict Arian Foster's stunning talent will be making NFL defenses sweat for some time to come, meaning that when it comes to the sports merchandise, you won't have to.

Clay Matthews, Linebacker, Green Bay Packers

eBay Stats—Listings: 170→409; Sales: +25x; Average Price: $6.94→$40.65

His talent for wreaking havoc on quarterbacks, combined with his brash WWE look and style, and the fact he plays in the high-quality Green Bay market, means Clay Matthews has the potential for huge commercial appeal on a national level. The Packers' "wild man" has already ignited enough excitement to drive the average price of his football collectibles on eBay a staggering 586% in nearly a year. But collectors take heed: the average price of his items for the total month of September was $35.93. When compared to the $27.49 and $18.81 averages of superstar linebackers Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher, respectively, over the same period, it's very possible his current rate of return won't hold.

Sam Bradford, Quarterback, St. Louis Rams

eBay Stats—Listings: 44→ 1711; Sales: +13.5x; Average Price: $32.73→ $22.61

For anyone who's watched the 2010 first overall pick this season, it's hard not to be impressed with Sam Bradford's early maturation as a quarterback in the NFL. Interestingly, the average price of his football memorabilia on eBay has actually dropped 31% while his sales have increased over 13-fold. That tells me that the reality of his current value is taking hold. Long term, he's a guy that fans want to root for, and that potential beloved status coupled with great on-field performances would certainly translate into more sought-after mementos a la Dan Marino and Kurt Warner.

Calais Campbell, Defensive End, Arizona Cardinals

eBay Stats—Listings: 52→ 45; Sales: +2.1x; Average Price: $2.42→ $3.17

While sales of collectibles for this 6-foot-8, 300-pound defensive behemoth have more than doubled during our time period, the average price of items with his name remains a listless $3.17 while listings have actually decreased. Calais Campbell's stock is hurt by the fact he plays for an average, Kurt Warner-less Cardinals team, and has posted numbers that, while solid, have been less than earth-shattering. But Campbell has shown flashes of dominance in his nearly year-and-a-half as a starter, which suggests that he could break out in the future, rendering items at their current value a steal.

LaMarr Woodley, Linebacker, Pittsburgh Steelers

eBay Stats—Listings: 136→ 127; Sales: +1.23x; Average Price: $19.88→ $22.11

To be honest, I thought the average price for LaMarr Woodley's memorabilia would be dramatically lower. After all, this consistently great linebacker is often overshadowed by his Steelers superstar comrades Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. It goes to show you the importance of doing your research before buying collectibles online. In this case, the numbers don't lie, and while I still think highly of Woodley as a player, I'm much less likely to snatch up his items than I would have at formerly bargain prices.

Drew Brees, Quarterback, New Orleans Saints

eBay Stats—Listings: 1610→ 2603; Sales: +1.2x; Average Price: $26.29→ $27.67

If football memorabilia from a team's golden era generally appreciates at a steady rate over time, than anything with Drew Brees in black-and-gold is a safe buy. Let's face it: some Super Bowls stay with us longer than others, and the Saints emotional victory in 2009, post-Katrina, is sure to be one of them. Will, forty years from now, Drew Brees's items sell the way Namath’s Super Bowl III memorabilia sells today? Possibly. But I guarantee that by then his pieces will fetch a great deal more than those of Jake Delhomme in Super Bowl XXXVIII.

Dexter McCluster, Wide Receiver/Kick Returner, Kansas City Chiefs          

eBay Stats—Listings: 2→713; Sales: NA (there were $0 in sales for McCulster during th week of October 5th, 2009); Average Price: $0→$13.17

Like Arian Foster, Dexter McCluster has made a big splash in this, his rookie season; and like the success to date of his Chiefs team, few saw it coming. While NFL fans are quickly catching on to this explosive playmaker — the number of listings for Dexter McCluster on eBay have shot up from two to 713 since last October—unless Chiefs find more ways to showcase him in their offense he could go from boom to bust.